When Usain Bolt ran the men’s 100 metres in a breathtaking 9.58 seconds at the World Championships 2009, he was hailed a Jamaican hero. When twenty five swimming world records were beaten at the Bejing Olympics in 2008 people were both amazed and disappointed that so many records could be beaten with such ease. For athletes and sports fans alike watching a world record getting smashed is a thrill like no other. It adds excitement, uncertainty and a challenge. But what would happen if you took away that element? What would happen if world records reached their peak?

According to recent research the competitive nature of athletics could soon be under threat. In two separate studies, one by scientists at the Institute for Biomedical Research and Sports Epidemiology (IRMES) (Berthelot et al 2008) and the other by researcher Mark Denny, a biology professor at Stanford University (Denny 2008), used extreme value theory to predict that within the next  generation the majority of world records will reach their peak resulting in athletes exhausting their natural skills; by their calculations Bolt’s world record will be broken for the final time by 10 seconds (9.48) before 2019. Extreme-value theory deals with statistical problems concerning the far tail of the probability distribution. It provides solid mathematical tools for semi-parametric inference, in particular for the estimation of extreme quantiles and the endpoint of the support of the distribution. The obtained statistical procedures have many applications, e.g., in hydrology (flood prevention), finance, (re)insurance, meteorology, and engineering. Most research concerning ultimate world records considers the development of the world record over time and extrapolates the trend to the future.  Most approaches uses only a limited number of past world records and therefore gives rather unstable estimates. However, Berthelot’s approach is based on as many as possible personal best times of top athletes. As a consequence the estimated ultimate world record tells us what could be achieved ‘tomorrow’, not what could happen in 500 years from now. So what actually is competition?

Competition can be defined as (a) the activity of competing against others, (b) an event or contest in which people compete and/or (c) the person or people with whom one is competing. With this in mind and the potential for competitive sports to be on the verge of extinction, this paper intends to consider how sport and in particular athletics can evolve in order to regain its competitive value. The value of an interest in sport is to bring about the consciousness the very rule of order of sport and the implication of sport action within those rules as opposed to an imposition of the rivalry perspective both by athletes and spectators. However, there are certain distinctions to be made between rivalry and competition. Rivalry breeds negativity and over powered emotions. Competition involves skill, precision and fairness among competitors. Rivalry is sharply in opposition to proper competition, seeking the complete annihilation of one opponent to gain dominance whereas competition strives to reveal which competitor is the best through a quantifiable ability. In competition the dominant opponent does not always win, which presents us with the issue of fairness in sport.

Oscar Pistorius, for example, has been the subject of criticism because of claims that his artificial limbs give him an advantage over able-bodied runners. Some claim that the Cheetahs return more energy per stride without ever becoming fatigued or requiring the same investment of energy and that they are not subject to lactic acid build-up that slows down ordinary athletes. However, consideration must also be taken of the disadvantages Pistorious faces such as rain which leaves traction hard to attain, wind which blows the devices sideways, and the fact that he needs more energy to start running than others.  So there is still more work to be done in discovering whether they truly confer a greater advantage. This is supported by the fact that the IAAF ban has been overturned by the Court of Arbitration of Sport (CAS), declaring that there is insufficient evidence to prove a substantial advantage. But can sport really be fair for everyone? Due to the great diversity of sport including athletics, one country can always be found to have an advantage over the other. Richer nations have a greater advantage in the training facilities and equipment they can provide. Some nationalities are simply better at some events.... Chinese and Russians at Gymnastics, Australians at swimming, Indians at Cricket, Brazilians at football, South African’s at rugby....... The list could go on. So is there a way to level the playing field?

What options do we have available in order to evolve competitive sport?
1. Athletics could be easily adapted by taking a more measured approach to athletics, literally measuring into millimetres and milliseconds
2. Instigating a points system would create a new element of competition to athletics similar to say Formula 1 or football leagues
3. Team sports hold greater variables and reliant on more than one persons performance. This therefore makes them less likely for teams to reach the same skill level
4. Why not devise new innovative sports that incorporate new variables and excitement

Technological enhancements are already having a real impact on athletics. Many of the latest advancements could be seen at the 2008 Olympics. For example, developed in association with NASA and the Australian Institute of Sport, the LZR Racer (swim suit) uses complex materials that's said to hold the body in a more hydrodynamic position, while expelling water and allowing for improved oxygen flow to the muscles. These enhanced suits have since been banned. Another technology enhancement is the Lone Star running spikes. NASCAR racing cars are set up to make left turns more easily, because on most circuits that's all they do. So why not do the same for track runners? Adidas has developed the Lone Star running spike. Track races are generally won or lost in the bends, so by analyzing a runner’s technique using video and pressure mapping in its lab, Adidas was able to determine that the left foot is used primarily for stabilization, while the right foot delivers more of the power. From that information they were able to develop an asymmetric pair of spikes tailored to the strengths of each foot. However are these technologies simply advancing us further along ending competition? Will we reach our limit sooner rather than later? Perhaps what we need to re set the goal posts and take a more decisive step into enhancement. In my opinion this is one possible area where man and machine come together to create an excellent and exciting sport.

So what kind of genetic enhancements could we expect in the near future? DNA testing saves time, effort and resources. If young budding athletes underwent a non invasive test prior to undertaking a more serious interest in athletic it could provide an invaluable tool in determining whether they should continue down this path. Athletes could make a more informed decision as whether they train to be a sprinter, swimmer or weight lifter. They would have a prediction on which event they would naturally excel preventing heartache. However there is also a point to be made of talent vs. desire. Gene doping is also often expressed as an option to those athletes willing to ‘push the button’. An example of gene doping could involve the recreational use of gene therapies intended to treat muscle-wasting disorders. Many of these chemicals may be indistinguishable from their natural counterparts. In such cases, nothing unusual would enter the bloodstream so officials would detect nothing. Turin 2006 Olympic Winter Games, where repoxygen was discussed as a possible substance in use at the Games. So whilst we may not be at the point where genetic enhancement is a necessity in order to keep competition alive, but at some point the issue of enhancement will become a tipping point.

References 

Berthelot G, Thibault V, Tafflet M, Escolano S, El Helou N, et al (2008) The Citius End: World Records Progression Announces the Completion of a Brief Ultra-Physiological Quest. PLoS ONE 3(2): e1552. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0001552

Denny, M. Limits to Running Speeds in Dogs, Horses and Humans, The Journal of Experimental Biology 211, 3836-3849, doi:10.1242/jeb.024968

Downloads

	Enhancing Athletes to Evolve Competition